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Effort Estimate Detail Sample Data from Galorath

Sample 1

 As requested, here are two reports indicating the coverage of the estimates.  
Labor categories by month… 
  
                                                     Development Hours by Month                                                         
                                                                                                                                        
      Month          Mgmt       SW Reqs       Design        Code      Data Prep       Test          CM           QA         Total       
  -------------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------   ----------     
    1 Aug-09            2.7          9.4          4.2          1.1          1.4          2.8          0.4          0.4         22.5     
    2 Sep-09            5.7          5.2         21.3          6.2          4.2          7.3          1.0          1.0         52.0     
    3 Oct-09           11.4          8.6         32.2         36.8          8.8         17.7          3.5          3.5        122.5     
    4 Nov-09           12.5          5.4         10.8         98.6         10.8         26.9          7.2          7.2        179.3     
    5 Dec-09           16.6          5.1         10.2         96.5         15.9         52.6         10.1         10.1        217.2     
    6 Jan-10           17.1          4.3          8.5         80.3         16.1         66.2         10.7         10.2        213.4     
  
And a summary of effort expended within labor categories, for every activity… 
  
                                                  Person Months by Labor Category                                                   
                                                                                                                                    
      Activity                     Mgmt        SW Reqs        Design         Code                                                   
 ----------------------------- ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------                                               
 System Requirements Design            0.00          0.02          0.00          0.00                                               
 S/W Requirements Analysis             0.01          0.05          0.01          0.01                                               
 Preliminary Design                    0.00          0.00          0.02          0.00                                               
 Detailed Design                       0.08          0.07          0.29          0.09                                               
 Code & Unit Test                      0.14          0.06          0.12          1.11                                               
 Component Integrate & Test            0.16          0.04          0.08          0.79                                               
 Program Test                          0.02          0.00          0.01          0.09                                               
 System Integrate Thru OT&E            0.01          0.00          0.01          0.03                                               
 Maintenance                           0.00          0.00          0.00          0.00                                               
                                                                                                                                    
      Development Total                0.43          0.25          0.55          2.11                                               
      Life Cycle Total                 0.43          0.25          0.55          2.11                                               
                                                                                                                                    
      Activity                  Data Prep        Test           CM            QA                                                   
 ----------------------------- ------------  ------------  ------------  ------------                                               
 System Requirements Design            0.00          0.00          0.00          0.00                                               
 S/W Requirements Analysis             0.01          0.01          0.00          0.00                                               
 Preliminary Design                    0.00          0.01          0.00          0.00                                               
 Detailed Design                       0.06          0.10          0.01          0.01                                               
 Code & Unit Test                      0.12          0.30          0.08          0.08                                               
 Component Integrate & Test            0.16          0.58          0.10          0.10                                               
 Program Test                          0.02          0.07          0.01          0.01                                               
 System Integrate Thru OT&E            0.00          0.09          0.01          0.00                                               
 Maintenance                           0.00          0.00          0.00          0.00                                               
                                                                                                                                    
      Development Total                0.37          1.16          0.22          0.21                                               
      Life Cycle Total                 0.37          1.16          0.22          0.21                                

Questions from ArthurRyman

1. These are estimates, but estimates are probability distributions and I only see one number. What do these numbers mean? How do you represent probability?

2. I'd model this breakdown dimensionally as having 3 dimensions and 1 measure:

Labor category, Activity, and Time are the dimensions. Effort in person-hours or person-months is the measurement. Do you actually estimate effort for each combination of (Labor category, Activity, Time)?

3. It looks like you are using a conversion faction of around 155 hours per month. Correct? In the data format, we'd provide all effort in a single unit of measure, e.g. hours, since labor rates are usually by the hour. I assume we should also model the conversion factor. How fancy do we need to be? Does the conversion factor vary within a project?

Answers from LeeFischman

1) These estimates are given at a specific probability. For another probability level, the reports would show numbers adjusted to that probability setting.

2) While we provide an estimate of effort parsed into activities over time (see below), we do not provide a further breakout to show labor categories x activity x time. Last week, I think we discussed the third dimension carrying probability. In any event, as you can see, the report of activities over time uses milestone dates which (without extrapolation) does not line up with the monthly reports. I’m afraid we might have to use two separate structures to carry the information.

3) The conversion factor here is 152, although it is configurable by the user. You needn’t be fancy, we can provide all estimates in hours.

Sample 2

  I actually left out another important way that estimates are provided, which I’ve copied below, 
to fully inform the following comments.  So now we have:
 
labor categories x activities
labor categories x time
activities x time

                                                          Activity Report                                                          
                                                                                                                                   
                                  Schedule      Person       Person                                                                
      Activity                     Months       Months       Hours          Cost                                                   
 -----------------------------  -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------                                               
 System Requirements Design            1.22         0.82          125         14,278                                               
      Cumulative    9/13/09            1.22         0.82          125         14,278                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 S/W Requirements Analysis             1.44         2.41          366         41,901                                               
      Cumulative   10/26/09            2.66         3.23          491         56,178                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Preliminary Design                    0.93         2.18          331         37,927                                               
      Cumulative   11/24/09            3.59         5.41          822         94,105                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Detailed Design                       3.14        11.71        1,780        203,740                                               
      Cumulative    2/28/10            6.73        17.12        2,602        297,845                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Code & Unit Test                      3.85        22.82        3,468        396,997                                               
      Cumulative    6/24/10           10.58        39.93        6,070        694,842                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Component Integrate & Test            3.53        25.90        3,937        450,701                                               
      Cumulative   10/10/10           14.11        65.84       10,007      1,145,543                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Program Test                          0.39         2.91          442         50,578                                               
      Cumulative   10/21/10           14.50        68.74       10,449      1,196,121                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 System Integrate Thru OT&E            1.61        18.16        2,760        316,003                                               
      Cumulative   12/10/10           16.11        86.90       13,209      1,512,124                                               
                                                                                                                                   
 Maintenance                          60.00       180.00       27,360      3,232,003                                               
      Cumulative   12/10/15           76.11       266.90       40,569      4,744,127                                               

RDF XML Fact Table for Effort Estimate

Here is a candidate representation of the above table as XML. The idea is to represent this data as a fact table, analyzing the data into dimensions and measures. I have set the confidence level to 80%.

We discussed how to communicate more of the probability distribution of the measures. The solution is to use a probability distribution as the value of each measurement.

<?xml version="1.0"?>
<rdf:RDF xmlns:rdf="http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#"
   xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
   xmlns:ems="http://open-services.net/ns/ems#">
   <ems:Estimate>
      <dc:title>Effort by Activity</dc:title>
      <dc:description>
         This estimate gives effort by activity. The activities are
         sequential and do not overlap. The estimate is at the 80%
         probability level. There are 152 person-hours per
         person-month. A person-month contains approximately 21 work
         days.
      </dc:description>
      <ems:hasValue rdf:parseType="Literal">
         <ems:FactTable
            ems:analyzes="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work" />
         ems:probabilityLevel="0.80">
         <ems:Dimension dc:title="Activity"
            ems:categorizesBy="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#activity" />
         <ems:Measure dc:title="Finish Date" ems:unitOfMeasure="date"
            ems:measures="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#finishDate" />
         <ems:Measure dc:title="Schedule Months"
            ems:unitOfMeasure="month"
            ems:measures="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#duration" />
         <ems:Measure dc:title="Person Months"
            ems:unitOfMeasure="person-month"
            ems:measures="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#effort" />
         <ems:Measure dc:title="Person Hours"
            ems:unitOfMeasure="person-hour"
            ems:measures="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#effort" />
         <ems:Measure dc:title="Cost" ems:unitOfMeasure="USD"
            ems:measures="http://open-services.net/ns/ems/work#labor-cost" />
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>
               System Requirements Design
            </ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2009-09-13</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>1.22</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>0.82</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>125</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>14278</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>S/W Requirements Analysis</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2009-09-26</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>1.44</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>2.41</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>366</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>41901</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>Preliminary Design</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2009-11-24</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>0.93</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>2.18</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>331</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>37927</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>Detailed Design</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2010-02-28</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3.14</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>11.71</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>1780</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>203740</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>Code &amp; Unit Test</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2010-06-24</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3.85</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>22.82</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3468</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>396997</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>
               Component Integrate &amp; Test
            </ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2010-10-10</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3.53</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>25.90</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3937</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>450701</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>Program Test</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2010-10-21</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>0.39</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>2.91</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>442</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>50578</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>
               System Integrate Thru OT&amp;E
            </ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2010-12-10</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>1.61</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>18.16</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>2760</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>316003</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         <ems:Fact>
            <ems:dimension>Maintenance</ems:dimension>
            <ems:measurement>2015-12-10</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>60.00</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>180.00</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>27360</ems:measurement>
            <ems:measurement>3232003</ems:measurement>
         </ems:Fact>
         </ems:FactTable>
      </ems:hasValue>
   </ems:Estimate>
</rdf:RDF>
Topic revision: r8 - 24 Sep 2010 - 13:39:48 - ArthurRyman
 
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