[OSLC-Metrics] Scenario vs. estimate exercise

Andrew J Berner ajberner at us.ibm.com
Fri Jan 29 12:58:51 EST 2010


We discussed this today in the OSLC metrics meeting.   The split between
"scenario" and "estimate" is which metrics/information are inputs to the
estimate and which metrics are the results.  Which is which can change.

Here's how it would split for the four "solutions" in my example...Each
becomes a pair of resources, a Scenario and an Estimate, with the Estimate
having a link back to the Scenario:

Original request from Business Case:

      Scenario:  Scope is all 7 epics and 5 Stories; duration is 6 months,
Quality is very high
      Estimate:  Peak staffing is 65  (of course should really be a
probability distribution--simplifying as in my original note)

Alternate A:

      Scenario: Scope is all 7 epics, Quality is very high
      Estimate: Duration is 18 months; Peak staffing is 12

Alternate B:

      Scenario:  Scope is limited to must have epics/stories; Duration is 6
months; Quality is very high
      Estimate: Peak Staffing is 25

Alternate C:

      Scenario: Scope is limited to must have and should have
epics/stories; Quality is very high
      Estimate: Duration is 10 months; peak team size is 20

So I believe this does clarify the distinction between what's in the
scenario and what's in the estimate.  Note that it's not obvious that any
particular tool makes this distinction in the UI; but there is an
"intention" of which metrics are the assumptions, and which are "solved
for" by the estimation tool.



Andy Berner
Lead Architect, ISV Technical Enablement and Strategy
IBM Rational Business Development
972 561-6599
ajberner at us.ibm.com

Ready for IBM Rational software partner program -
http://www.ibm.com/isv/rational/readyfor.html


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  |Andrew J Berner/Dallas/IBM at IBMUS                                                                                                                  |
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  |oslc-metrics at open-services.net                                                                                                                    |
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  |01/29/2010 06:25 AM                                                                                                                               |
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  |[OSLC-Metrics] Scenario vs. estimate exercise                                                                                                     |
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  |oslc-metrics-bounces at open-services.net                                                                                                            |
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I had an action item from last meeting to develop an exercise to clarify my
question about scenario vs. estimate.  Sorry I didn't get it done in time
for Arthur to work on this week...we can keep going by e-mail or at a
future live meeting.

Attached is the exercise about whether scenario and estimate are clearly
distinguished:  I give an English description of an interaction between
Portfolio Management and Estimation tools, and Arthur will try to translate
this into XML scenario/estimate resources.  To focus on this issue, we can
simplify in two ways that will be part of the full resource description,
but not related to the question I'm asking here; that way we won't get lost
in the more complex XML actually needed:

a) Assume we need the estimate at 80% confidence level; we know how to
represent the more precise quantile representation of the metrics rather
than single number, and that’s not the issue here

b) Assume there’s only one estimation tool involved; all the metrics come
from the same tool...the spec allows that the list of metrics is broken up
into sublists, but that's not the issue here (if I'm understanding what
"one scenario has multiple estimates" means in the primer).  We can discuss
this issue separately.  It's VERY possible I'm misinterpreting the primer
here.

In the exercise, I describe a business case for a proposal under
consideration in a portfolio management tool which contains some
information that will be used to build an estimate, and four "answers" that
are prepared by the estimation tool for possible tradeoffs to include back
into the business case so it can go through the approval workflow in the
Portfolio Management tool.  This is typical of the kind of work done
cooperatively by portfolio management tools and estimation tools.

The question is how the results of this estimation work is represented as
scenario/estimate resources we have in the OSLC spec.

(See attached file: Is scenario clearly distinguished from estimate.doc)




Andy Berner
Lead Architect, ISV Technical Enablement and Strategy
IBM Rational Business Development
972 561-6599
ajberner at us.ibm.com

Ready for IBM Rational software partner program -
http://www.ibm.com/isv/rational/readyfor.html[attachment "Is scenario
clearly distinguished from    estimate.doc" deleted by Andrew J
Berner/Dallas/IBM] _______________________________________________
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