[OSLC-Metrics] Scenario vs. estimate exercise

Mon Feb 1 18:04:25 EST 2010

Andy,

Thx for the analysis. Yes, this captures the intended distinction.

Arthur Ryman, IBM DE
Chief Architect, Rational Project and Portfolio Management
Office: 905-413-3077, Cell: 416-939-5063
Assistant: Nancy Barnes, 905-413-4182 

From:
Andrew J Berner <ajberner at us.ibm.com>
To:
oslc-metrics at open-services.net
Date:
01/29/2010 01:09 PM
Subject:
Re: [OSLC-Metrics] Scenario vs. estimate exercise
Sent by:
oslc-metrics-bounces at open-services.net

We discussed this today in the OSLC metrics meeting. The split between 
"scenario" and "estimate" is which metrics/information are inputs to the 
estimate and which metrics are the results. Which is which can change.

Here's how it would split for the four "solutions" in my example...Each 
becomes a pair of resources, a Scenario and an Estimate, with the Estimate 
having a link back to the Scenario:

Original request from Business Case:

Scenario: Scope is all 7 epics and 5 Stories; duration is 6 months, 
Quality is very high
Estimate: Peak staffing is 65 (of course should really be a probability 
distribution--simplifying as in my original note)

Alternate A:

Scenario: Scope is all 7 epics, Quality is very high
Estimate: Duration is 18 months; Peak staffing is 12

Alternate B:

Scenario: Scope is limited to must have epics/stories; Duration is 6 
months; Quality is very high
Estimate: Peak Staffing is 25

Alternate C:

Scenario: Scope is limited to must have and should have epics/stories; 
Quality is very high
Estimate: Duration is 10 months; peak team size is 20

So I believe this does clarify the distinction between what's in the 
scenario and what's in the estimate. Note that it's not obvious that any 
particular tool makes this distinction in the UI; but there is an 
"intention" of which metrics are the assumptions, and which are "solved 
for" by the estimation tool.

Andy Berner
Lead Architect, ISV Technical Enablement and Strategy
IBM Rational Business Development
972 561-6599
ajberner at us.ibm.com

Ready for IBM Rational software partner program - 
http://www.ibm.com/isv/rational/readyfor.html

Andrew J Berner---01/29/2010 06:25:38 AM---I had an action item from last 
meeting to develop an exercise to clarify my question about scenario

From:

Andrew J Berner/Dallas/IBM at IBMUS

To:

oslc-metrics at open-services.net

Date:

01/29/2010 06:25 AM

Subject:

[OSLC-Metrics] Scenario vs. estimate exercise

Sent by:

oslc-metrics-bounces at open-services.net

I had an action item from last meeting to develop an exercise to clarify 
my
question about scenario vs. estimate.  Sorry I didn't get it done in time
for Arthur to work on this week...we can keep going by e-mail or at a
future live meeting.

Attached is the exercise about whether scenario and estimate are clearly
distinguished:  I give an English description of an interaction between
Portfolio Management and Estimation tools, and Arthur will try to 
translate
this into XML scenario/estimate resources.  To focus on this issue, we can
simplify in two ways that will be part of the full resource description,
but not related to the question I'm asking here; that way we won't get 
lost
in the more complex XML actually needed:

a) Assume we need the estimate at 80% confidence level; we know how to
represent the more precise quantile representation of the metrics rather
than single number, and that?s not the issue here

b) Assume there?s only one estimation tool involved; all the metrics come
from the same tool...the spec allows that the list of metrics is broken up
into sublists, but that's not the issue here (if I'm understanding what
"one scenario has multiple estimates" means in the primer).  We can 
discuss
this issue separately.  It's VERY possible I'm misinterpreting the primer
here.

In the exercise, I describe a business case for a proposal under
consideration in a portfolio management tool which contains some
information that will be used to build an estimate, and four "answers" 
that
are prepared by the estimation tool for possible tradeoffs to include back
into the business case so it can go through the approval workflow in the
Portfolio Management tool.  This is typical of the kind of work done
cooperatively by portfolio management tools and estimation tools.

The question is how the results of this estimation work is represented as
scenario/estimate resources we have in the OSLC spec.

(See attached file: Is scenario clearly distinguished from estimate.doc)

Andy Berner
Lead Architect, ISV Technical Enablement and Strategy
IBM Rational Business Development
972 561-6599
ajberner at us.ibm.com

Ready for IBM Rational software partner program -
http://www.ibm.com/isv/rational/readyfor.html[attachment "Is scenario 
clearly distinguished from estimate.doc" deleted by Andrew J 
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